Here We Go Again: Tesla Q1 Deliveries Tracking Another Miss

Tesla is running out of time and options to help it meet still ambitious market estimates for Q1 deliveries, revenue, and profits—as I had projected.

Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑ looks about to close its fourth straight quarter with deliveries tracking well short of what had been, yet again, overly ambitious market estimates—as I had projected.

That's why Q1 consensus estimates for deliveries have plunged for more than a month from more than 430,000 (up more than 39% y/y) to something closer to my original estimate near 400,000 (up 29% y/y) (see Tesla's Demand Problems Aren't Going Away on 1/31/23).

In that report, I detailed again how I have tracked for years Tesla's persistent struggle to sustain same store sales with all its models, in all its markets. 

This year, as I warned, Tesla has run out of easy boosts from vital incremental growth which have accounted for all the reported increases in deliveries for years. As I noted then:

Indications are Tesla’s demand and pricing pressure will only grow through 2023 and beyond, and we saw how heavily that weighed on revenue, profit, and cash flow in disappointing fourth quarter results (see Tesla Q4: Stalling Growth, Shrinking Margins, Weaker Guidance, Mystery "Investment" on 1/29/23). Moreover, other than maybe Q2 this year, Tesla has run out of comparatively easy comps.

So I am skeptical that Tesla has solved its demand problems with dramatically large price cuts in the latest wave following several cuts and increased incentives in recent months.

This suggests to me substantially increased concern from Tesla about sales growth, if not desperation—not a sales triumph. It also explains why Tesla has backed off two years of guidance calling for better than 50% y/y growth in deliveries, with management’s target indicated at 37% for 2023.

Tesla's Demand Problems Aren't Going Away, 1/30/23

This comes despite several rounds of price cuts in recent months which, as I warned, seemed again to have pulled demand forward versus actually growing sustainable sales. Inventory has continued to climb in China, Europe, and the US during most of