Tesla Q3 Deliveries Are Looking Ugly

Market consensus estimates for Tesla's Q3 deliveries have been falling so hard and fast they now approach my formerly well below market estimate. Cue the spin.

Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑ is now expected to report much weaker than previously expected Q3 deliveries on Monday, based on plunging market consensus estimates which now average 455,000 (up 32% y/y).

That’s down versus 475,000 (up 38% y/y) estimated at the start of the quarter and sharply lower versus 485,000 (up 41% y/y) estimated at the beginning of the year—and a whopping 520,000 (up 51% y/y) projected last year when investors generally expected Tesla sales would grow by more than 50% per year for the foreseeable future.

I had projected Q3 deliveries at flat to down 5% versus the surprisingly strong