Tesla Q3 Deliveries Trail Even Sharply Reduced Market Consensus—And Its Own Best Guess

Q3 deliveries at 343,830 were better vs my cautious 331,104 est, but came in 20,000-50,000 lower vs plunging market projections & Tesla's own guidance—Worse, sales trailed production by record 22,100.

Tesla (TSLA 0.00%↑) reported on Sunday that Q3 deliveries were 343,380. This was up an impressive 42% y/y but trailed managements’ 50% targeted growth rate for the second straight quarter (see Soft Tesla Q2 Deliveries Disappoint on 7/2/22 and Tesla Splitsville 8/8/22).

Deliveries also fell short of tumbling market estimates, again, which had continued to be recast as recently as Friday and still proved to be roughly 20,000-50,000 too high.

Even more troubling was that sales also trailed production for the second straight quarter, this time by a whopping 22,100. That was the highest excess since the 14,176 overproduction in Q1 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic hit.

This suggests that even Tesla was surprised at the size of the shortfall, coming despite its typical end-of-quarter plug-o-rama; e.g. last minute fleet sales, hurried incentives and discounts, deliberately vague numbers of “cars in transit,” and other maneuverings that usually fill the gaps.

My estimate of 331,104, affirmed last week, was again reasonable close, by comparison, with a difference of 12,700 vs reported 343,380:

• Bond Angle est M3+Y = 314,780 (up 36%) vs reported 325,158 (up 40%)

• Bond Angle est MS+X = 16,324 (up 76%) vs reported 18,672 (up 101%)

This will nudge higher my third quarter estimates for revenue and profits, with revenue now indicated at $22 billion (up 61%) and reported EBITDA at $4.4 billion (20% margin, down 330 bps y/y on softer China performance and weaker margins overall).

For now, however, I’m keeping my fourth quarter estimates essentially unchanged with deliveries at 446,979 (up 45%), revenue at $27.9 billion (up 58%) with reported