Tesla reportedQ2 deliveries at 254,695, down 18% vs Q1 and the lowest since Q321. Results came at low end of wide range for market estimates (which kept dropping up to the last minute) but tracked near my 5/18 estimate of 251,458:
Bond Angle est M3+Y = 236,587 vs Tesla reported: 238,533
Bond Angle est MS+X = 14,871 vs Tesla reported: 16,162
This troubled quarter has accelerated that pressure, including the increasing drain on Tesla's cash. Recall CEO Elon Musk has already complained that the new Austin and Berlin plants are burning billions in cash.
That's cash not being replaced without a strong rebound in China sales—which is far from certain. Even then, Tesla's cash is China has been greatly restricted following currency controls implemented last year by the government—it's staying put. Tesla is not generating billions of cash anywhere else in the world.
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Soft Tesla Q2 Deliveries Disappoint
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Tesla reported Q2 deliveries at 254,695, down 18% vs Q1 and the lowest since Q321. Results came at low end of wide range for market estimates (which kept dropping up to the last minute) but tracked near my 5/18 estimate of 251,458:
Bond Angle est M3+Y = 236,587 vs Tesla reported: 238,533
Bond Angle est MS+X = 14,871 vs Tesla reported: 16,162
The narrow difference compared with my numbers indicates only modest improvement potential at best versus my revenue and profit estimates (see Elon Suddenly Admits Massive Tesla Losses (Because Other News Out Soon Is Even Worse, 6/30/22) which I'll publish in an upcoming report.
Recall I already have projected since last year that Tesla would likely struggle in the second half of 2022 versus record results last year (see this detailed again in Look Away From Elon Musk To Gauge Tesla's Prospects—and Looming Risks, 12/31/21, and Tesla China Deliveries: Weaker And More Important Than You Think, 3/14/22).
This troubled quarter has accelerated that pressure, including the increasing drain on Tesla's cash. Recall CEO Elon Musk has already complained that the new Austin and Berlin plants are burning billions in cash.
That's cash not being replaced without a strong rebound in China sales—which is far from certain. Even then, Tesla's cash is China has been greatly restricted following currency controls implemented last year by the government—it's staying put. Tesla is not generating billions of cash anywhere else in the world.
Stay tuned.
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