I still expect September exports were nominal at best. I also projected retail sales to be well over-weighed with Model Y, still in ramp up—albeit it a slowing pace—vs. floundering Model 3.
Based on similar trends apparent in Europe sales, where Model 3 sales dropped 51% y/y in September, it looks like I may be right.
PHOTO: “Visitors wearing face masks check a China-made Tesla Model Y sport utility vehicle (SUV) at the electric vehicle maker's showroom in Beijing, China January 5, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo”
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Tesla China Sales In September: Another Big Miss
Tesla China Sales In September: Another Big Miss
Tesla China Sales In September: Another Big Miss
CPCA reported Tesla wholesale numbers in September at 83,135, which includes local retail sales plus exports.
Either way—it’s a huge miss, as I expected, versus market consensus which has been dropping rapidly vs. projections at 100k or better.
Indeed, even with zero exports this indicates local sales were well below even my below market estimate for 86,083, from my projected range of 85,000-88,000 (see Tesla Q3 Deliveries Trail Even Sharply Reduced Market Consensus—And Its Own Best Guess, 10/3/2022, and Tesla's Q3 Ests Are Fading On Weaker China Sales—Again, 9/27/22).
I still expect September exports were nominal at best. I also projected retail sales to be well over-weighed with Model Y, still in ramp up—albeit it a slowing pace—vs. floundering Model 3.
Based on similar trends apparent in Europe sales, where Model 3 sales dropped 51% y/y in September, it looks like I may be right.
By comparison, BYD Co. reportedly sold a stunning 201,000 NEV vehicles in September, including nearly 95,000 pure EVs like Tesla.
Stay tuned.
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PHOTO: “Visitors wearing face masks check a China-made Tesla Model Y sport utility vehicle (SUV) at the electric vehicle maker's showroom in Beijing, China January 5, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo”
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