Tesla Cybertruck delay confirmed to mid-2023—at least.
Reuters confirmed the latest delay until mid-2023 for Cybertruck rollout, the latest in a string of pushed targets. Won't likely be the last as Tesla scrambles vs hot new EV truck rivals already out.
Reuters confirmed the Edmund’s story I commented on yesterday that Tesla (TSLA) did quietly push the Cybertruck roll-out—again.
Back in October Tesla wiped the Cybertruck site of all pricing and model information, but kept a crucial detail: a production start time in 2022. Now if you go to the same order page, you'll notice that where it once said, "You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in 2022" it only states, "You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears….The 2022 deletion appears to have happened right before Christmas, based on a search using the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine tool."
Reuters sites an unnamed source reporting that new target looks like initial production delayed until the first quarter of 2023, with volume production pushed to mid-year at the earliest. I won’t hold my breath.
This is yet another delay from the previous target which had been set for late this year. And that target was the revision created back in August when the company expected to blow through its projections for roll-out starting near the end of last year. And that target was revised from the previous target of 2018 set back in 2013. And that target...
You get the idea. Tesla had been dodging realistic expectations about Cybertruck for years even before the prototype finally was unveiled with smoke and mirrors back in 2019.
The reveal did not go well, like when the truck’s “bulletproof” glass was shattered with a hammer.
I questioned its claimed 3,500 pound payload capacity after the truck tipped sharply when loading an 800-pound ATV.
But then, I’m evaluating Cybertruck as a longtime truck owner. I have pulled heavy trailers across the country, including my 34’ horse trailer with large living quarters and room for my three big field hunters.
So I have significant safety concerns that Cybertruck is specked to pull as much as 14,000 pounds. With its poor visibility. And no towing-ready mirrors. And no trailer brakes or controllers. Pulling what would have to a potentially unstable—at peak weight—bumper-pull trailer since Cybertruck’s built-in structural battery pack likely rules out a goose-neck set-up in the truck bed which far more capably and safely supports towing of such weight.
Not all truck buyers use their trucks extensively for heavy hauling, or sports, or work, or projects, but they like to know they can. This a “truck” conceived by and for people who don’t really understand trucks—and that limits its credible marketability.
Plus, Cybertruck is assembled with big, overly thick, and thus really heavy, flat panels over a unibody frame all made of stainless steel and topped by a massive windshield—making it inordinately complex and expensive to produce, insure, and repair.
Oh, and the new 4680 battery Telsa plans to power Cybertruck with is not yet commercially viable.
But mainly I have observed, as I did in 2020, that we really won’t know what Cybertruck will look like, or be capable of, or will cost since it probably won't arrive for another 2-3 years, or more.
And here we are still looking at that time frame. The latest explanation for the current delay is that Tesla is substantially redesigning key features, which is a good idea since, in my view, the running concept seems almost laughably insufficient as anything more than an overpriced boy toy.
While Cybertruck can claim its legions of Tesla fans, those of us who actually buy and use trucks already are more excited about credible EV truck offerings coming from Rivian (RIVN) and, especially, veteran truck-maker and top truck-seller Ford (F) with its new F-150 Lightning, soon to be followed by General Motors (GM) EV versions of Hummer and Silverado, among others. This is particularly true in the US where trucks have out-sold cars for years.
I expect all of these rivals will be out with meaningful volume before Cybertruck.
This, I suspect, better explains what has chased Tesla back to the drawing board for Cybertruck.
Stay tuned.
Tesla repurchased its 5.3% senior notes in the third quarter of 2021 as I projected, though I doubt we’ve seen the last of Tesla as a bond issuer:
Now stay tuned for the second step I described: a quickly shopped, likely $2-4 billion inordinately low coupon bond deal, accompanied by a bump in credit quality ratings potentially to low investment grade (see Tesla's Car Business Finally Turned A Profit. Really. Time For A Big Bond Deal). It could even be appealing... if it’s priced at T+100 bps or better.
Until then, I have Tesla: Not Rated.
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