Tesla Q1 Deliveries: Look Out Below
Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y
Tesla (TSLA -3.91%↓) first-quarter deliveries fell 8.5% y/y to just 386,910, the lowest since Q3 2022. This trailed frantically falling market consensus which landed at 457,000 (up 8% y/y) versus the previously reduced estimate of 478,000 (up 13% y/y) at the end of February. Even my lowest estimate of 411,000 (down 3% y/y) looks rich by comparison (see Tesla Q1 Trends: Rockslide, 3/25/24).
Results were down 20% versus disappointing Q4 results and worse than the 4.7% y/y decline Tesla reported during the Covid pandemic in Q2 2020—the only other year/year decline in quarterly deliveries Tesla has ever reported.
It won’t be the last. I long have detailed Tesla’s fading momentum in same-store sales which it covered via market expansions into Europe and China and then with global